Well, what have we here? I see a stable uptrend from the beginning of 2000 on both charts.
Then we got a collapse in august 2008. All stock exchanges were hit by the crisis and USD became a safe haven currency.
After a big fall we see fast recovery till december of 2009. Then again a big fall because of problems in Europe including Greece. Currently we once again have a small recovery.
What will be next? Unfortunately forex is a new market and thats why we can't be sure what should happen next according to history. But we all know that history always repeats itself.
I've made some research on some other crises that happened on Wall Street. Recessions could be of 2 shapes - V-shape and W-shape. Now its more likely that we are in W-shape type of recession. So I assume there won't be any surprises and world economy should become stronger with every new day.
What we also know is that US have really big debts now, counting in trillions of dollars, and it needs to pay them back. How it can be done? Simple, by printing more money. Usually that means depreciation of national currency. America took a scenario of living in debt since the collapse of Soviet Union and it can't last forever. SU was a real threat to US and citizens of america worked hard to be a great competitor. Now we see that Russia paid all its debts of SU and more likely is going to take a leadership from US. Once again China made a real break through in world's economy.
I really believe this could be the next scenario but US always could think of something extraordinary. It is proven to be the strongest economy in several tens of years. There is no need to underestimate its potential.
No comments:
Post a Comment