Tuesday, July 20, 2010

How to define market trend?

In this article I'll describe 3 ways of defining the trend.

1. The simplest way to detect the trend is to use Moving Average indicator or 2 MAs with different smoothing property. The trend can be bullish if: MA is growing, current rate is over the MA or fast MA crossed slow MA. The opposite is true for bearish market.

2. The trend can be detected by using the breakout of current strong support/resistance levels. If the rate for a while was in closed corridor of prices then these prices appears to be the support/resistance levels. If the rate broke out the resistance level then we are in bull market and if it broke out support level then we are in bear market.

3. There is one more interesting way to define current trend. Look at your chart and locate impulse wave followed by a correction wave. If you don't know the meaning of these waves please read my post "Elliott Wave Theory". Look at the size of the correction wave. If it's smaller than impulse wave then we are in the impulse wave direction market. If the correction wave seems the same as impulse way then it's possible there is going be flat market or market reverse. Eventually, If you see that correction wave is larger than impulse wave (however, it is impossible in the regular elliott wave theory) then market can develop in this opposite direction.

And remember, the trend should be defined on Day chart.

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